The Philippines is expected to experience above-normal rainfall conditions from January to March due to La Niña conditions, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said on Monday.
According to recent data, cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, observed since September, have strengthened and reached La Niña conditions by December.
“It is likely that this La Niña condition will continue at least until JFM (January-February-March) 2025 season as suggested by several climate model,” PAGASA said in a press statement on Monday.
Under La Niña conditions, the chance of heavy, above-normal rainfall in the country is likely, said by Ana Liza S. Solis, PAGASA’s Assistant Weather Services Chief and Chief of the Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section.
“So, makakaranas pa rin tayo ng maraming [We will still experience a lot of] rain-bearing weather systems due to the combined effects of La Niña-like conditions, Shearline, Intertropical Convergence Zone, Low Pressure Area, at kasama itong [and this includes] Northeast Monsoon activity,” Ms. Solis said in an interview.
There is also an increased chance of tropical cyclone activity within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) during the forecast period, PAGASA said.
“For 2025, yung first six months natin (during the first six months), we have forecasted around two to eight tropical cyclones, at least for the first quarter of the year from January to June,” Ms. Solis said.
Ms. Solis noted that tropical cyclones are usually uncommon during the early months of the year. However, due to La Niña conditions, their occurrence is possible. She urged caution, particularly in areas such as Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, Northern Mindanao, Palawan, and MIMAROPA.
“Kailangang laging maging handa sa mga possible na mga changing weather patterns natin at this time of the year [We need to always be prepared for possible changes in our weather patterns during this time of the year],” Ms. Solis said.
Apart from rainy conditions, colder temperatures are expected from January to February, Ms. Solis added, as the Northeast Monsoon remains in effect, particularly affecting the northern and central parts of Luzon and the eastern parts of the Visayas. – Edg Adrian A. Eva