DoST finds way to predict dengue outbreak

AS THE Philippines continues to grapple with dengue, a local scientist is developing a computer-based model that can forecast potential outbreaks and help strengthen the country’s dengue prevention efforts.

Developed by the Department of Science and Technology (DoST) Balik Scientist and Institute of Biological Control Director Dr. Thaddeus M. Carvajal, the computer-based model combines environmental data, mosquito activity, and dengue case records to allow the prediction of dengue outbreaks.

“His work aims to give communities and health authorities the tools to act faster, smarter, and more effectively against one of the country’s most persistent public health threats,” DoST said in a statement.

From January to June 2025, the Department of Health has already recorded more than 123,000 dengue cases and 437 related deaths nationwide, underscoring the urgent need for stronger prevention measures, especially during the rainy season when spikes in cases often occur.

“Fighting dengue is more than a health concern — it is a national priority,” DoST Secretary Renato U. Solidum, Jr. said in a statement.   

“Through R&D projects led by our Balik Scientists, we are developing innovations that stay ahead of dengue,” he added.   

Mr. Carvajal has been studying the hidden patterns of mosquito-borne diseases in the Philippines over the years, particularly focusing on Aedes aegypti, the main culprit behind dengue outbreaks.

He found that mosquitoes in busy areas like ports are genetically similar, suggesting they spread through human travel, a finding that could help track and prevent dengue outbreaks before they worsen.

Mr. Carvajal’s model was presented at the John Gokongwei Innovation Center at De La Salle University (DLSU)-Laguna and is currently being developed for future adoption.  — Edg Adrian A. Eva