World Bank keeps Philippine GDP forecasts for 2025, 2026

The World Bank maintained its Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecasts for this year and 2026, amid heightened uncertainty and slowing global growth.

In its recent East Asia and Pacific Economic Update released on Tuesday, the multilateral lender kept its growth outlook for the Philippines at 5.3% this year and 5.4% for 2026, unchanged from its projections in June.

These forecasts are below the government’s 5.5-6.5% target for this year, and 6-7% for next year.

The Philippines is expected to be the region’s fourth fastest-growing economy in the East Asia and Pacific this year, trailing Palau (11.9%), Mongolia (6.3%), and Vietnam (5.8%), and tied with Samoa.

For 2026, the Philippines is projected to post second fastest growth after Vietnam (6.1%).

The country’s growth forecast is above the regional average, with East Asia and the Pacific expected to expand by 4% this year and 4.1% in 2026.

“East Asia and Pacific region growth remains relatively high, but it is slowing down,” World Bank East Asia and Pacific Chief Economist Aaditya Mattoo said in a virtual briefing on Tuesday.

“Turning to the reasons why growth is slowing down, we identify three main factors. Trade restrictions, increased economic policy uncertainty, and slowing global growth,” he said.

Mr. Mattoo noted that most economies in the region now face higher tariffs than at the start of the year.

The US imposed a 19% tariff rate for Philippine-made goods starting Aug. 7. — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante