BANK OF THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS (BPI)expects its consumer lending expansion to slow next year as weaker economic conditions and geopolitical risks temper demand, a senior official said.
“We would have wanted to grow much more,” BPI Consumer Banking head Maria Cristina Go told reporters on Friday. “But we all were caught by surprise by the recent GDP (gross domestic product) growth, that’s why we have to be very cautious but remain optimistic.”
The economy grew 4% in the third quarter, the slowest in more than four years and well below the previous quarter’s 5.5%. Growth averaged 5% in the first nine months, putting the government’s 5.5% to 6.5% full-year target out of reach.
Given the weaker backdrop, BPI expects its consumer loan book to expand by 10% to 15% next year, easing from the 28% growth rate it has posted so far. This year’s rapid expansion was driven by home, auto, motorcycle and teachers’ loans, many of which came through the bank’s acquisition of Robinsons Bank Corp. in January.
Ms. Go said credit card, personal and business banking loans also experienced firm momentum this year. Lending to micro, small and medium enterprises surpassed the bank’s P35-billion target and reached P55 billion.
As of end-September, BPI’s total noninstitutional loan portfolio stood at about P750 billion, and the bank plans to keep its loan mix at about 30% in this segment next year.
Part of the caution for 2026 stems from geopolitical risks, she said, citing trade tensions and their potential impact on foreign exchange markets and interest rates. “Geopolitics is a risk that we all must be very sensitive to, and it impacts many aspects of the business,” she said.
Still, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ rate cut cycle could bolster loan activity. “The BSP remains supportive… We’re looking at further rate cuts, which should spur consumer demand because it’s now more affordable to get a loan,” she said.
But confidence is critical — whether people proceed with plans to travel, buy a home, get a car, or take on credit card spending, she added.
BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr. has said another 25-basis-point (bp) cut is possible before the year ends, with more reductions likely in 2026 as the widening corruption scandal tied to state flood control projects weighs on public spending and growth.
The central bank has lowered its benchmark by a total of 175 bps since August 2024, bringing the policy rate to 4.75%. The Monetary Board will hold its final policy meeting of the year on Dec. 11.
Despite the slower outlook for 2026, BPI remains profitable. The bank posted a 5.2% increase in net income to P50.5 billion in the first nine months of the year as revenue growth continued to outpace rising expenses. — Aaron Michael C. Sy