Holiday spending seen to lift Philippine GDP growth to 5.3% in Q4 

The University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) on Monday said the Philippine economic growth is expected to pick up in the fourth quarter, driven by a pickup in public spending and holiday-related consumer activity supported by remittance inflows.

In The Market Call released on Monday, UA&P expects gross domestic product (GDP) to expand by 5.3% in the October–to-December period, pushing full-year growth to 5.1%.

If realized, the 5.1% full year growth would be below the government’s target of 5.5-6.5%.

“President Marcos has indicated potential convictions regarding the flood control scandal before Christmas, bolstering confidence,” it said.

In the first nine months, GDP growth averaged 5%, following a third‑quarter slowdown due mainly to weak public spending and subdued consumer and investor sentiment.

UA&P also sees inflation settling at 1.7% this year and 2.2% in 2026.

“This weaker growth outlook will provide a strong case for a December rate cut from BSP (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas), which could see USD PHP hover around P58.5 by year-end, as usual OFW inflows bloat for the Christmas holidays,” it said. — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante